Illinois vs. Mississippi State Women's Basketball Predictions & Picks - NCAA Tournament First Four

Wednesday's game between the Illinois Fighting Illini (22-9) and the Mississippi State Bulldogs (20-10) at Purcell Pavilion has a good chance to be a tight matchup, as our computer prediction projects a final score of 69-67, with Illinois coming out on top. Tipoff is at 7:00 PM ET on March 15.

The Fighting Illini lost their last matchup 73-58 against Maryland on Friday.

Illinois vs. Mississippi State Game Info

• When: Wednesday, March 15, 2023 at 7:00 PM ET
• Where: Purcell Pavilion in South Bend, Indiana
• How to Watch on TV: ESPNU

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Illinois vs. Mississippi State Score Prediction

• Prediction: Illinois 69, Mississippi State 67

Illinois Schedule Analysis

• In their best win of the season, the Fighting Illini beat the No. 3 Iowa Hawkeyes, 90-86, on January 1.
• Against Quadrant 1 opponents, the Fighting Illini are 3-6 (.333%) -- tied for the 41st-most victories.
• Illinois has tied for the 43rd-most Quadrant 2 victories in the country (four).
• The Fighting Illini have seven wins over Quadrant 3 teams, tied for the 43rd-most in the nation.

Illinois 2022-23 Best Wins

• 90-86 at home over Iowa (No. 3/AP Poll) on January 1
• 72-64 on the road over Nebraska (No. 51) on February 9
• 86-76 at home over Michigan State (No. 54) on January 29
• 76-66 on the road over Missouri (No. 71) on December 18
• 85-62 at home over Penn State (No. 111) on February 19

Mississippi State Schedule Analysis

• On February 6, the Bulldogs picked up their signature win of the season, a 91-90 victory over the Tennessee Lady Volunteers, who rank No. 24 in the AP's Top 25.
• The Bulldogs have eight losses against Quadrant 1 opponents, tied for the 45th-most in Division 1.
• Mississippi State has five wins over Quadrant 2 opponents, tied for the 31st-most in the nation.
• According to the RPI, the Fighting Illini have seven wins versus Quadrant 3 teams, tied for the 43rd-most in Division 1.

Mississippi State 2022-23 Best Wins

• 91-90 at home over Tennessee (No. 24/AP Poll) on February 6
• 60-45 at home over Alabama (No. 43) on February 19
• 87-73 at home over Arkansas (No. 49) on February 23
• 72-58 at home over Auburn (No. 87) on January 19
• 71-66 at home over Colorado State (No. 90) on November 20

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Illinois Performance Insights

• The Fighting Illini's +337 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 10.8 points per game) is a result of scoring 75.9 points per game (28th in college basketball) while giving up 65.1 per contest (200th in college basketball).
• Illinois' offense has been less productive in Big Ten contests this season, tallying 72.7 points per contest, compared to its overall average of 75.9 PPG.
• Offensively, the Fighting Illini have performed better in home games this year, putting up 79.9 points per game, compared to 72.2 per game on the road.
• Illinois gives up 63.6 points per game when playing at home this year, compared to 67.4 in away games.
• On the offensive side of the ball, the Fighting Illini have struggled over their last 10 games, scoring 71.1 points per contest over that span as opposed to the 75.9 they've put up over the course of this year.

Mississippi State Performance Insights

• The Bulldogs outscore opponents by 12.4 points per game (posting 71.5 points per game, 63rd in college basketball, and giving up 59.1 per outing, 55th in college basketball) and have a +373 scoring differential.
• In 2022-23, Mississippi State has averaged 65.6 points per game in SEC action, and 71.5 overall.
• At home, the Bulldogs average 76.1 points per game. On the road, they score 61.6.
• At home, Mississippi State gives up 56.8 points per game. Away, it allows 64.
• While the Bulldogs are averaging 71.5 points per game in 2022-23, they have fallen short of that in their previous 10 games, tallying 67.1 points per contest.