Phil sees his shadow this Groundhog Day.

Published: Feb. 2, 2023 at 6:25 PM EST
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Meteorologist Punxsutawney Phil woke up Thursday morning to fair skies at his home in Pennsylvania.

Due to the clear conditions, it was easy for him to see his shadow.

According to folklore, this means that we are in for six more weeks of Winter.

With all the snow we’ve seen this week, you may want to believe it.

But before planning a picnic in early March, let’s see if is there any actual weight to the groundhog’s prediction.

According to data from the National Centers for Environmental Information, Phil’s track record is questionable..

Doug Butts, Meteorologist in Charge at the National Weather Service office in Blacksburg, Virginia, says that over the past ten years, Punxsutawney Phil has been right only about 40% of the time. You have much better odds flipping a coin.

While Phil seeing his shadow typically means six more weeks of Winter, if we look at climate data for the next few months, it paints a different picture.

Doug Butts: “Climate prediction center says we are going to be headed toward a warmer and slightly wetter normal period all the way through April.”

So far, I’m not convinced. It looks like Concord Charlie’s prediction of an early Spring will be closer to reality.

It will certainly invite a warmer reception, but it’s probably smarter to stick with trained meteorologists for weather predictions.